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Friday, September 03, 1999 By Barry Wilner, Associated Press
The division that sent four teams to the playoffs last year won't be quite as dominant this time. Still, the Dolphins, Jets and Bills all have legitimate title aspirations.
Miami and New York have loaded up under veteran coaches who believe they can win the championship now. The AFC East race could come down to their two meetings in three weeks in December.
Jimmy Johnson wants to squeeze one more strong year out of Dan Marino, who has been impressively durable through most of his Hall of Fame-caliber career. But Marino will be 38 soon, and he can't carry an offense.
So Johnson is letting a committee of runners carry the ball, but with injuries to rookies Cecil Collins and James Johnson, he might not have the depth he seeks. He does have the receivers he wants for Marino in newcomer Tony Martin and O.J. McDuffie, who led the league with 90 receptions. If Yatil Green finally can play after two injury-ruined years, and if everyone behaves, this could be a potent offense.
But this also is a team living on the edge with such controversial characters as Collins, who was suspended for much of his college career, and Martin, recently acquitted of a money-laundering charge.
Johnson, who quit for half a day in the offseason, gets rejuvenated when he looks at his defense, which yielded the league's fewest points in 1998. All-Pro linebacker Zach Thomas is surrounded by a deep group that includes emerging cornerback Sam Madison and linemen Daryl Gardener, Tim Bowens and Jason Taylor.
The Dolphins are as loaded defensively as any team can be in the free agency era. For once, they only need Marino to be good, not great, and he certainly seems capable of that.
The Jets ask the same of Vinny Testaverde, who flourished when he wasn't the focal point of an offense. In fact, Testaverde's best year came because he got excellent protection for a line led by center Kevin Mawae and rookie tackle Jason Fabini; had superb receivers in Pro Bowler Keyshawn Johnson, Wayne Chrebet and the quickly developing Dedric Ward; and a reliable runner in Curtis Martin.
If Testaverde repeats his 101.6 rating that led the AFC, he could come close to repeating his .923 winning percentage. That would put the Jets at the top of the AFC heap, where they almost got by going 12-4 in '98.
Still, Parcells is relying on a lot of veterans to have career years on top of a career year. Testaverde on offense, Bryan Cox, Anthony Pleasant, Victor Green and Mo Lewis on defense fall into that category.
Like Miami, the Jets have good depth defensively. Unlike the Dolphins, New York doesn't have that depth everywhere, and could be plagued by a thin secondary -- particularly if free agent safety Steve Atwater has trouble in coverage, as he did last year in Denver.
But Cox and Lewis are part of the best linebacking group in the AFC, with seven good players available.
The Jets get some early tests with four 1998 playoff teams among the first five opponents.
Buffalo also has some key veterans, three of whom were major contributors to the conference dynasty -- and 0-4 Super Bowl teams -- of the early '90s.
Bruce Smith, no longer a dominator, remains a threat at defensive end. Andre Reed, also in his 15th season, won't be the primary receiver, a duty Eric Moulds seized last year with 19 catches of 25 yards or more and nine TDs. Thurman Thomas is a backup to Antowain Smith, but he'll probably be used on third downs and, with Smith bothered by a groin injury, maybe more often.
The Bills had a good draft. Watch for Peerless Price to settle under some long throws from the revitalized Doug Flutie, and for cornerback Antoine Winfield's big-time hits. They also have a good blend of top youngsters (Moulds, guard Ruben Brown, linebacker Sam Cowart) to go with a strong array of vets. There's no lack of leadership here.
There might be in New England, which needs to win to make coach Pete Carroll secure. That's a shame, because Carroll is one of the nice guys in football, but his team appears ready to fall apart.
Injuries have damaged the Patriots, who lost top runner Robert Edwards (torn knee ligaments in a pickup beach game) and fine middle linebacker Ted Johnson. Rookies and untested veterans must come around quickly, with linebacker Andy Katzenmoyer, center Damien Woody and running back Kevin Faulk expected to contribute immediately.
The Pats will be hard-pressed to match their 9-7 mark and wild-card spot of last year, although in cornerback Ty Law, QB Drew Bledsoe and receiver Terry Glenn, they have some difference-makers.
The guy who could make the most difference in Indianapolis is not Peyton Manning. He improved throughout his on-field trial as a rookie quarterback, but the Colts weren't any better. Manning looks ready for some more impressive achievements, but it is the edge top pick Edgerrin James can provide the offense that has Indy fans excited.
Of course, the defense was just about the league's worst in '98, and free agents Chad Cota (safety), Cornelius Bennett (linebacker), Shawn King and Chad Bratzke (both ends) must produce right away.
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