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Monday, December 02, 2002

By Ricardo Alonso-Zaldivar, Los Angeles Times

WASHINGTON -- The death toll from crashes caused by drivers talking on their wireless phones appears to be rising significantly as the devices become a must-have accessory for many Americans.

A study being released today by Harvard University's Center for Risk Analysis estimates a rate of 2,600 deaths a year in such crashes, compared with the same researchers' estimate of 1,000 fatalities only two years ago.

"The amount of time people spend using their cell phones while driving has increased, probably reflecting the fact that it is becoming cheaper to use the devices," said research scientist Joshua Cohen, the study's author.

The Harvard study also estimated that 570,000 injuries a year and 1.5 million crashes resulting in property damage can be blamed on wireless phone use.

The study will feed into a national debate that pits personal freedom and convenience against safety concerns.

Two federal agencies have recently stepped up efforts to understand how wireless phone use may contribute to accidents. The National Transportation Safety Board is investigating wireless phones as a potential contributing factor in several recent serious crashes. The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration is launching a study of how wireless phone use affects individual drivers, using the government's driving simulator facility in Iowa.

Nationwide, there is no uniform measure for tracking accidents in which wireless phone use may have been a factor. The Harvard study used mathematical models to estimate the risk of injury and death as well as the costs and benefits of using wireless phones while driving. The risk analysis center is part of Harvard's School of Public Health. The study concluded that the escalating costs of wireless phone-related accidents are erasing the economic benefits of unrestricted use of the devices by drivers.

Previous economic analysis by Harvard researchers had found that the benefits of being able to readily communicate for business or pleasure while on the road clearly outweighed the social costs of injuries and deaths in accidents.

Cohen's latest calculations found that the costs are now roughly equal to the benefits.

"The risk is growing, but the benefits are not keeping up," Cohen said. Such conclusions could bolster the case for restricting wireless phone use by drivers.

This year, at least 22 states considered legislation to restrict wireless phone use while driving, according to the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety. So far, only New York has enacted a partial prohibition. It does not allow drivers to use hand-held phones. New Yorkers may use devices adapted for hands-free use, which are usually voice-activated and come with an earpiece and microphone.

It is too early to tell whether New York's law, which went into effect last year, is saving lives.

Wireless phone use is by no means the biggest menace on the roads. Alcohol-related crashes accounted for 17,448 deaths last year, while accidents involving speeding took 12,850 lives, according to federal statistics.

But much less is known about the link between wireless phone use and crashes than about the effects of alcohol or speeding. In most states, accident report forms used by police do not collect information on whether drivers were on the phone.

The wireless phone industry -- which has more than 128 million customers -- has refused to turn over customer records that would allow researchers to pinpoint whether drivers were in fact on the phone at the time of an accident.

A 1997 study of Canadian drivers who agreed to have their wireless phone records scrutinized found that the risk of an accident was four times greater while a driver was using the phone.