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Post-Gazette picks
Friday, March 23, 2001 By Ron Weiskind, Post-Gazette Movie Editor
He faced death in the arena, fighting both man and beast, stripped of glory, his family murdered, his freedom but a memory. And then he had to wait for the all-powerful potentate to make the signal that would decide his fate. Thumbs up or thumbs down ...
Thumbs down! Doom! And so it is writ.
Roger Ebert hated "Gladiator."
And yet the stalwart General Maximus did flourish: $187 million at the box office, 12 Academy Award nominations. Yet as Oscar night arrives, the doubts remain.
Is "Gladiator" worthy of being named Best Picture? Can Maximus' sword and shield hold off the charge of "Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon" or the rare Two Headed Soderbergh or the golden Miramax beating its incessant "Chocolat" drum?
Maximus may have had it easy. At least when he was waiting for the thumbs-up/thumbs-down signal, he didn't have to sit there in a tuxedo and watch the usual interminable production numbers.
He also didn't have to try to pick the winners in advance. This looms as one of the more treacherous years for Oscar predictors, with few sure things beyond Julia Roberts and the inevitable Holocaust documentary.
Still, to quote our good gladiator, what we do in life echoes in eternity -- or, at least, on Oscar pool sheets. I am required to predict, so I do -- with shaky thumbs.
BEST PICTURE
The naysayers point out that "Gladiator" is a costume epic, a historical pageant of the "swords and sandals" genre that seemingly went out of style with all those "Hercules" movies starring the late Steve Reeves. The hip choice (and, if I were voting, my choice) is "Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon," which its naysayers dismiss as a derivative martial-arts flick -- and with subtitles, no less. No foreign-language film has ever won Best Picture.
Some would argue the drug-war drama "Traffic" is more relevant or the Julia-and-Goliath movie "Erin Brockovich" is more of a crowd-pleaser. At least no one beyond Miramax boss Harvey Weinstein is making much of an argument for "Chocolat."
In the end, Oscar usually favors historical epics, especially if the costumes are good. Whatever its faults, "Gladiator" is an unusually well-crafted film, and that's something Hollywood can especially appreciate. I look for "Gladiator" to wear the crown at evening's end.
BEST ACTOR
This started out as a two-horse race between "Gladiator" star Russell Crowe and "Cast Away" leading man Tom Hanks. But the Hanks backlash seems to be building. He's always nominated, he's won twice, no man has ever won three Best Actor awards (much less in a seven-year period) and maybe he's just too damned nice. On the other hand, Crowe came between Meg Ryan and Dennis Quaid, the cad. And was it his acting, his swordplay or his pecs that made him so appealing in "Gladiator"?
If enough Oscar voters can't stomach the idea of voting for either of them, the door will swing open for an upset by Ed Harris, a good and respected actor who spent 10 years trying to get "Pollock" made. But I'm sticking with Russell Crowe, who should have won the award last year for "The Insider."
BEST ACTRESS
If Julia Roberts doesn't win the Oscar this year, she never will. Ellen Burstyn gave a better performance in "Requiem for a Dream" and Laura Linney was remarkable in "You Can Count on Me." But Roberts gave a star turn in "Erin Brockovich," going just enough against type in the kind of flamboyant role that audiences (and Oscar voters) eat up.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
The outcome of the Screen Actors Guild awards has thrown everything into a tizzy. Albert Finney won the Supporting Actor award for "Erin Brockovich" and Benicio Del Toro won the Best Actor award for "Traffic." But for whatever reason, both men are competing in the same Oscar category. Del Toro's win has made him the hot choice to win the Academy Award, but Finney is still considered a strong possibility. I look at it this way: Old soldiers James Coburn and Michael Caine won here the past two years. Del Toro will have his day. But I think this night belongs to Finney, getting his first Oscar on his fifth try in a distinguished career that spans 40 years.
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
There's not a bad performance in this bunch, and SAG voters picked past Oscar winner Judi Dench for "Chocolat." But the race tonight would seem to be between the two women in "Almost Famous": Frances McDormand, a Best Actress winner for "Fargo," was funny and serious and harsh and poignant all at the same time. Kate Hudson's golden glow suffused the entire film, personifying its theme of a loss of innocence and its affection for all of its flawed but lovable characters. I'd vote for McDormand, but vibrant young actresses tend to win here, and it doesn't hurt to be the daughter of Hollywood royalty (Goldie Hawn). I'm going with the prevailing winds and picking Hudson.
DIRECTOR
This one is usually easy. Just go with whoever wins the Directors Guild award. Only four DGA winners have failed to win the Oscar. Ang Lee ("Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon") took the Guild award this year. But Steven Soderbergh was nominated for two films, "Erin Brockovich" and "Traffic." Most think he'll split the vote, but some contend (rightly, I think) that most of his votes will be for "Traffic," which would give him a chance. And if "Gladiator" wins Best Picture, you can't ignore Ridley Scott. I wouldn't be surprised if either Lee or Scott wins. For the record, I'm picking Lee.
FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
OK, this one is a lock: "Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon."
SCREENPLAY (ADAPTED)
Pittsburgh pride will have us rooting for Steve Kloves, who adapted the Michael Chabon novel "Wonder Boys," which was set and filmed here. But the buzz has been almost unanimous for Stephen Gaghan, who wrote "Traffic." I'm picking Gaghan to win, too.
SCREENPLAY (ORIGINAL)
This is another tough one, although for once "Gladiator" isn't considered a contender. The Writers Guild picked Kenneth Lonergan for his independent production, "You Can Count on Me." It could very well win. But I'm guessing that this is where Oscar voters will give Cameron Crowe his due for the sadly overlooked "Almost Famous."
ART DIRECTION
Did anyone see "Vatel"? I thought not. Can the Grinch steal an Oscar? Maybe. But I suspect this one is a battle between the two warrior films, and I'm guessing "Gladiator" wins over "Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon."
CINEMATOGRAPHY
"Tiger" could spring here, too. But, as I recall, Maximus defeated one in the Colosseum. I'll pick "Gladiator."
SOUND
I have a feeling I'm the only person who appreciates the roar of the surf and the sound of the wind blowing through the trees that provided the only aural accompaniment through much of the island sequence in "Cast Away." I suspect the Oscar voters may opt instead for the full-blown gale of "The Perfect Storm."
SOUND EDITING
There are just two nominees, and only one of them was also nominated for Sound. That's the one I'm picking. "U-571" defeats "Space Cowboys."
ORIGINAL SCORE
A Taiwanese martial-arts film seems like a strange place to find haunting cello solos by Yo-Yo Ma. But those interludes qualify as some of the most memorable movie music of the year. Thus, I'll predict a win for "Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon," score by Tan Dun.
ORIGINAL SONG
For the first time in a long time, only one of the nominees is from an animated film: "My Funny Friend and Me," from "The Emperor's New Groove." It is sung by Sting, a big enough star. But he's not as big as Bob Dylan. Can you imagine Dylan in a tux giving an acceptance speech -- albeit onscreen from Australia? He'll get it as much for that reason as for the merits of his song, "Things Have Changed," from "Wonder Boys."
COSTUME
They don't call it a costume epic for nothing: "Gladiator."
DOCMUENTARY FEATURE
Not only does a Holocaust documentary always win, this one is also worthy: "Into the Arms of Strangers: Stories of the Kindertransport."
DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT
Chuck Braverman, a longtime Hollywood documentarian, wins for "Curtain Call," about the Actors Fund home, where many of the Oscar voters will end up living someday.
FILM EDITING
The American Cinema Editors gave their award to "Gladiator." That's good enough for me and, I suspect, for the Academy.
MAKEUP
Even this one is tough. Do you go with the popular "How the Grinch Stole Christmas," or for the independent film that turned Willem Dafoe into a monster, "Shadow of the Vampire"? I think either could win. But "Shadow" was about moviemaking, and Dafoe was utterly unrecognizable, so I'll choose it. Besides, doesn't the Academy hate Jim Carrey?
ANIMATED SHORT FILM
Largely a guess: "Father and Daughter."
LIVE ACTION SHORT
This one has a Holocaust connection, too: "One Day Crossing."
VISUAL EFFECTS
Why stop now? "Gladiator."
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