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AP film writers pick the Oscars
Wednesday, March 21, 2001 By the Associated Press
AP Movie Writer David Germain and entertainment writers Anthony Breznican and Christy Lemire predict who will win -- and declare who should win -- in top Academy Awards categories Sunday:
Best Picture
(Nominees: "Chocolat," "Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon," "Erin Brockovich," "Gladiator," "Traffic")
Germain:
Should win: "Traffic," for scope, street smarts, artful interweaving of three story lines, and a non-judgmental stance on characters and their actions.
Will win: "Gladiator." Brawn beats brains this year. That panorama of Rome and those Colosseum mobs just look too cool for the Academy to pass up.
Breznican:
Should win: "Almost Famous," but it's not even nominated. So, "Crouching Tiger," for its combination of originality and epic scale.
Will win: "Gladiator." The Academy likes grand storytelling, and this is the biggest epic of the year, a throwback to Hollywood's yesteryear.
Lemire:
Should win: "Traffic," because it's intelligent and complex, packed with powerful performances, and Steven Soderbergh makes it all look easy.
Will win: "Gladiator." Harkens to the golden days of big Hollywood epics. Plus, it has Russell Crowe kicking butt in a skirt. How can you top that?
Best Director
(Nominees: Stephen Daldry, "Billy Elliot"; Ang Lee, "Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon"; Steven Soderbergh, "Erin Brockovich"; Ridley Scott, "Gladiator"; Steven Soderbergh, "Traffic")
Germain:
Should win: Soderbergh for "Traffic" (with bonus points for "Brockovich.") Keeping all those characters in the "same movie," as he puts it, was remarkable.
Will win: Lee. To some, two nominations already equal an Oscar for Soderbergh. Enough voters will gravitate to Lee for his elegant, deserving romance.
Breznican:
Should win: Soderbergh, "Traffic." But since his double nomination is kind of like winning already, the Academy will look to ...
Will win: Lee. The movie won't win best picture because the dialogue isn't in English. But the Academy likes it and will honor Lee as a consolation prize.
Lemire:
Should win: Lee. Because every moment of his film is breathtakingly beautiful and inventive.
Will win: Lee. While Oscar voters will favor "Traffic" over "Brockovich," votes for Soderbergh will still be split.
Best Actor
(Nominees: Javier Bardem, "Before Night Falls"; Russell Crowe, "Gladiator"; Tom Hanks, "Cast Away"; Ed Harris, "Pollock"; Geoffrey Rush, "Quills")
Germain:
Should win: Bardem. As Cuban writer Reinaldo Arenas, Bardem was masterfully indefatigable and drolly funny in the face of artistic and sexual oppression.
Will win: Bardem. Time for that Hilary Swank magic to jolt the academy out of its stodginess again.
Breznican:
Should win: Harris. The story doesn't tell you why Jackson Pollock was such a psychological disaster -- only Harris' frantic eyes and weathered face have the answer.
Will win: Hanks. A performance so compelling he makes you feel genuine sadness when his only friend, a volleyball, is lost at sea.
Lemire:
Should win: Rush. His Marquis de Sade is devastating to watch, and a better performance than the one he won an Oscar for in "Shine."
Will win: Hanks. The only actor who could sit silently on an island for giant chunks of time and make it compelling. And Hollywood loves him.
Best Actress
(Nominees: Joan Allen, "The Contender"; Juliette Binoche, "Chocolat"; Ellen Burstyn, "Requiem for a Dream"; Laura Linney, "You Can Count On Me"; Julia Roberts, "Erin Brockovich")
Germain:
Should win: Linney. Let us count the ways: She was angry, frightened, joyous, mournful, meddling, sympathetic, duplicitous ... all with great authenticity.
Will win: Julia Roberts IS Erin Brockovich. Enough said.
Breznican:
Should win: Linney, for her vulnerable and intense older sister. Plus, this "little movie" about a troubled sibling reunion deserves some recognition.
Will win: Roberts, a charming, big box-office draw who has never won an Oscar. Why wouldn't Academy members line up with the most popular girl in school?
Lemire:
Should win: Burstyn. A brave, gut-wrenching performance, the best of her career, in a film most people wouldn't want to watch.
Will win: Roberts. Give in to the juggernaut.
Best Supporting Actor
(Nominees: Jeff Bridges, "The Contender"; Willem Dafoe, "Shadow of the Vampire"; Benicio Del Toro, "Traffic"; Albert Finney, "Erin Brockovich"; Joaquin Phoenix, "Gladiator")
Germain:
Should win: Dafoe. If the film was made in "Smell-o-rama," the putrefaction he emitted would be overpowering. Oscar must acknowledge such virtuoso creepiness.
Will win: Dafoe. It's been a while since the academy did anything nice for the undead.
Breznican:
Should win: Finney. He huffs and puffs his way through a sidekick role with gusto, even stealing scenes from a formidable co-star: Julia Roberts' cleavage.
Will win: Finney. Nominated four times before but never a winner. The Academy may feel he's due.
Lemire:
Should win: Dafoe, for sinking his teeth into the role (couldn't resist, and the word "putrefaction" was already taken).
Will win: Del Toro. In a cast of talented actors, he stands out. And he's just too cool.
Best Supporting Actress
(Nominees: Judi Dench, "Chocolat"; Marcia Gay Harden, "Pollock"; Kate Hudson, "Almost Famous"; Frances McDormand, "Almost Famous"; Julie Walters, "Billy Elliot")
Germain:
Should win: Harden. Playing Pollock's wife may not be as hard as actually being his wife. But it's still pretty tough, and Harden's awfully good at it.
Will win: Harden. The one performance that would be Oscar-worthy in any year, against any contender.
Breznican:
Should win: Hudson. Her groupie's naked optimism in the rock 'n' roll saga illuminated its dark side.
Will win: Hudson. She stood out in a large cast and her mother, Goldie Hawn, is a past Oscar-winner. This year's Angelina Jolie.
Lemire:
Should win: Hudson. Her magnetism lights up every scene she's in, making a great movie even better.
Will win: Hudson. She has the Hollywood DNA on her side, and an acting Oscar would almost make up for the fact that "Almost Famous" got snubbed.
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